m***@facts.only.now
2012-10-28 19:36:23 UTC
New U.S. Navy Fleet Unaffordable: CBO
The U.S. Navy's plan to build a new fleet over the next 30 years
doesn't provide for enough replacement ships, a study says, and the
Navy's planned budget for that time period falls far short of
supplying enough money.
The Navy envisions buying a total of 276 ships over the next 30 years
at an average annual cost of about $16 billion in 2010 dollars for new
construction, or about $18 billion for total shipbuilding, which adds
in the cost of refueling aircraft carriers. Using a different
calculus, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the cost for
new ships at an average $19 billion per year, or $21 billion per year
for total shipbuilding.
Eric Labs, who wrote the study, noted in the report that statements in
the latest shipbuilding plan and in related briefings by Navy
officials point to a planned fleet of 323 ships for most of the next
30 years, up from the long-stated 313-ship goal. But he concludes the
construction plan is insufficient to achieve a 323-ship fleet, and
that the planned 323-ship fleet is unaffordable if the Navy continues
to average about $15 billion per year for shipbuilding.
Overall, CBO estimates the costs of the 2011 shipbuilding plan are
about 18 percent higher than the Navy's estimates. But the disparity
in estimates is better in the near term, with only a 4 percent
differential over the next decade, and grows in future years. CBO's
forecasts for the last 10 years of the plan rise to as much as 37
percent higher than the Navy's.
The Navy, for its part, acknowledged in the 2011 plan that the
accuracy of cost estimates diminishes in the second decade of the
30-year plan, becoming "notional" in the far term "due to the
uncertainty of business conditions affecting the shipbuilding
industry."
Among the differences in Navy and CBO cost calculations are:
å CVN 78-class aircraft carriers. The Navy estimates a cost of $10.6
billion per ship; CBO estimates $12.4 billion.
å SSBN(X) ballistic missile submarines. Navy: $7.2 billion each; CBO:
$8.2 billion each.
å SSN 774 Virginia-class attach submarines. The Navy and CBO agree at
a price of $2.5 billion per sub.
å SSN 774I Improved Virginia-class: Navy: $2.9 billion. CBO: $3.3
billion.
å DDG 51-class destroyers, current Flight IIA version. Navy: $1.6
billion each; CBO: $1.8 billion.
å DDG 51-class destroyers, improved Flight III version. Navy: $2.0
billion each; CBO: $2.4 billion.
å DDG(X) replacement destroyers. Navy: $2.4 billion each; CBO: $4
billion.
å Littoral Combat Ships: The Navy and CBO agree at a price of $600
million each; CBO's estimate for future replacement ships rises
slightly to $700 million while the Navy's price doesn't change.
å LSD(X) amphibious dock ships. Navy: $1.3 billion each; CBO: $1.7
billion each.
å LHA 6/LH(X) amphibious assault ships. Navy: $3.4 billion each; CBO:
$4.2 billion.
Labs noted in his report that the cost for Gerald R. Ford, first of
the CVN 78 class, could grow even further. He based that on historical
precedent for a first-of-class ship; the fact that the Navy told him
there is a 60 percent probability the final cost will exceed the
service's estimate; and the high number of new and critical
technologies that are being developed for the ship, including the
as-yet-untried electromagnetic launch system (EMALS) that will replace
traditional steam catapults.
CBO also noted that calculating the design, cost and capabilities for
the new SSBN(X) submarines "are among the most significant
uncertainties in the Navy's and CBO's analyses of future
shipbuilding." Among the chief problems are indecision and
disagreement as to the size, configuration and requirements of the
submarine - an issue now being targeted by the House seapower
subcommittee as one for increased scrutiny.
The U.S. Navy's plan to build a new fleet over the next 30 years
doesn't provide for enough replacement ships, a study says, and the
Navy's planned budget for that time period falls far short of
supplying enough money.
The Navy envisions buying a total of 276 ships over the next 30 years
at an average annual cost of about $16 billion in 2010 dollars for new
construction, or about $18 billion for total shipbuilding, which adds
in the cost of refueling aircraft carriers. Using a different
calculus, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the cost for
new ships at an average $19 billion per year, or $21 billion per year
for total shipbuilding.
Eric Labs, who wrote the study, noted in the report that statements in
the latest shipbuilding plan and in related briefings by Navy
officials point to a planned fleet of 323 ships for most of the next
30 years, up from the long-stated 313-ship goal. But he concludes the
construction plan is insufficient to achieve a 323-ship fleet, and
that the planned 323-ship fleet is unaffordable if the Navy continues
to average about $15 billion per year for shipbuilding.
Overall, CBO estimates the costs of the 2011 shipbuilding plan are
about 18 percent higher than the Navy's estimates. But the disparity
in estimates is better in the near term, with only a 4 percent
differential over the next decade, and grows in future years. CBO's
forecasts for the last 10 years of the plan rise to as much as 37
percent higher than the Navy's.
The Navy, for its part, acknowledged in the 2011 plan that the
accuracy of cost estimates diminishes in the second decade of the
30-year plan, becoming "notional" in the far term "due to the
uncertainty of business conditions affecting the shipbuilding
industry."
Among the differences in Navy and CBO cost calculations are:
å CVN 78-class aircraft carriers. The Navy estimates a cost of $10.6
billion per ship; CBO estimates $12.4 billion.
å SSBN(X) ballistic missile submarines. Navy: $7.2 billion each; CBO:
$8.2 billion each.
å SSN 774 Virginia-class attach submarines. The Navy and CBO agree at
a price of $2.5 billion per sub.
å SSN 774I Improved Virginia-class: Navy: $2.9 billion. CBO: $3.3
billion.
å DDG 51-class destroyers, current Flight IIA version. Navy: $1.6
billion each; CBO: $1.8 billion.
å DDG 51-class destroyers, improved Flight III version. Navy: $2.0
billion each; CBO: $2.4 billion.
å DDG(X) replacement destroyers. Navy: $2.4 billion each; CBO: $4
billion.
å Littoral Combat Ships: The Navy and CBO agree at a price of $600
million each; CBO's estimate for future replacement ships rises
slightly to $700 million while the Navy's price doesn't change.
å LSD(X) amphibious dock ships. Navy: $1.3 billion each; CBO: $1.7
billion each.
å LHA 6/LH(X) amphibious assault ships. Navy: $3.4 billion each; CBO:
$4.2 billion.
Labs noted in his report that the cost for Gerald R. Ford, first of
the CVN 78 class, could grow even further. He based that on historical
precedent for a first-of-class ship; the fact that the Navy told him
there is a 60 percent probability the final cost will exceed the
service's estimate; and the high number of new and critical
technologies that are being developed for the ship, including the
as-yet-untried electromagnetic launch system (EMALS) that will replace
traditional steam catapults.
CBO also noted that calculating the design, cost and capabilities for
the new SSBN(X) submarines "are among the most significant
uncertainties in the Navy's and CBO's analyses of future
shipbuilding." Among the chief problems are indecision and
disagreement as to the size, configuration and requirements of the
submarine - an issue now being targeted by the House seapower
subcommittee as one for increased scrutiny.